July 2010
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Top Roving

Top Roving

The Electoral College Elects

The last two presidential elections have been more than closes. In 2000 it was Florida that made the difference and in 2004 it was Ohio. Unless things change drastically in this last week of campaigning, Obama is set to run away with the election where it counts, in the electoral college. The polling has been holding steady to leaning more and more to Obama in the past two weeks. Of course that can change in the final week; however, here’s the hill McCain must climb. 

It take 270 electoral votes to get elected president of the United States.

Looking at the current polling from three sources that I deem reliable shows the following:

>Karl Rove…….Obama 317, McCain 157, Toss Up 64
>Rasmussen…..Obama 313, McCain 174, Toss Up 51
>Zogby………..Obama 286, McCain 174, Toss Up 78

That’s a daunting task, if not an impossible one to overcome in just seven days. Obama has more than enough votes to win currently and a chance to add to the total and have an electorl sweep: in terms of electoral votes. While the daily tracking polls are interesting for overall trends, they don’t give you the BIG PICTURE as far as who’s going to win the office.

One clue is where the candidates will be in the last week of campaigning. And that answer is in the RED states that went for Bush in 2004. Not only is McCain staying in the red states playing defense, Obama is there playing offense. Not a good omen. Already five RED staes in 2004 have now been put into the BLUE states column for this cycle (Iowa, New Mexico, Virginia, Colorado, and Florida). And of the 51 toss up states that Rasmussen has indicated, ALL were RED states in ‘04 (Missouri, Ohio, Nevada, North Carolina).

More bad news is that in those four toss up states, Obama is leading in public opinion polls but within the margin of error.

It’s the electoral college that elects and with just one week to go, it’s looking strongly Obama! But, anything can happen in politics. Thomas E. Dewey is a good 1948 reminder.   :-)  

About the Author

As a spiritual-futurist, I interpret current events in light of possible macro-universal forces at play leading up to 2012, but not limited to it.


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